The Minnesota surge

Minnesota’s immigrant share is well below the U.S. average, yet it got ICE’s “largest” operation

9.0% foreign-born vs 14.8% nationally (Census Bureau, 2024)

Census Bureau data for 2024 put Minnesota’s foreign-born share at 9.0% (523,549 of 5.79 million people), against 14.8% nationally, 27.6% in California, 25.0% in New Jersey, 23.3% in New York, 23.1% in Florida, 18.4% in Texas and 15.4% in Illinois. Pew Research Center’s 2023 estimates (residual method on Census data) count 130,000 unauthorized immigrants in Minnesota, 2.2% of its population against 4.1% nationally, 6.9% in Florida, 6.6% in Texas, 6.4% in New Jersey and 5.7% in California; that ranks Minnesota 33rd of the 50 states and D.C. by share and 24th by number. The Migration Policy Institute’s 2023 estimate (legal status imputed from survey data) is lower, 100,000, and Minnesota’s lawsuit cites a state agency figure of “just over 1.5%”. The numbers are documented; that they show a political motive is an inference, argued by Minnesota in court and not decided by any judge.

Their response: DHS statement to Fox 9 (January 2026): “Operation Metro Surge targets the worst of the worst who flock to Minnesota because they know sanctuary politicians will protect them.” In court the government said the operation was launched “to address the dangers arising from the presence of illegal aliens in the Twin Cities area, including dangerous criminal aliens engaged in violent crimes and drug trafficking.”

Sources: Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2024 1-year, table DP02, Minnesota (data.census.gov) · Pew Research Center, unauthorized immigrants and characteristics for states, 2023 (Aug. 21, 2025) · Migration Policy Institute, Profile of the Unauthorized Population: Minnesota (2023 data) · State of Minnesota v. Noem, complaint (Jan. 12, 2026) · Fox 9 (Jan. 14, 2026)

About 3,000 federal officers were sent where 80 normally work, nearly five times Minneapolis’s police force

About 3,000 federal officers vs 80 normally (court order)

A federal judge’s order records that, by the government’s own estimate, about 3,000 federal officers were in Minnesota as of January 26, 2026, “in contrast to the 80 officers that ‘[t]ypically’ cover ICE’s operations in the Twin Cities”; Minneapolis has a little over 630 sworn police officers. The operation began on December 1, 2025, grew when about 2,000 officers were sent in early January, and was called by ICE’s acting director its “largest immigration operation ever”; the city’s later report says it brought “more than 4,000 federal agents to Minnesota”. In January Minnesota had the fourth-highest number of ICE arrests of any state, the Minnesota Reformer found from ICE data, though it ranks 24th in unauthorized population. Border czar Tom Homan pulled 700 officers on February 4 and announced the end on February 12; by February 20 fewer than 500 remained, members of Congress were told.

Their response: Tom Homan, February 12, 2026: “As a result of our efforts here, Minnesota is now less of a sanctuary state for criminals.” Asked whether future deployments could match this scale, he said “it depends on the situation.”

Sources: U.S. District Court, D. Minn., order denying injunction, Minnesota v. Noem (Jan. 31, 2026) · AP via PBS News (Jan. 6, 2026) · City of Minneapolis, Updated Impact Assessment (June 10, 2026) · Meet Minneapolis, policing and community safety page (2026) · Minnesota Reformer (Aug. 25, 2026)

ICE’s own data: about 3,800 Minnesota arrests, fewer than a quarter with a criminal conviction

3,789 arrests; under 25% with convictions (ICE data, MPR News)

DHS said the surge produced more than 4,000 arrests of “murderers, pedophiles, rapists, gang members and terrorists”. ICE records obtained by the Deportation Data Project through a Freedom of Information Act lawsuit, analyzed by MPR News and APM Reports, show at least 3,789 arrests from December 1 to March 10: fewer than one-quarter had a criminal conviction, a little more than 13% had pending charges, and about 35% were “collateral” rather than targeted. The Intercept’s count from the same data found 97% were street arrests, against 52% elsewhere in the country, and the Minnesota Reformer found roughly 1,700 of 3,571 detainees had been deported by early March, against about 600 deportations in the three months before the surge. Those with records did include people convicted of serious crimes, and the data is incomplete.

Their response: DHS Assistant Secretary Tricia McLaughlin (December 2025): “ICE law enforcement officers have arrested more than 400 illegal aliens including pedophiles, rapists, and violent thugs since Operation Metro Surge began.” The Reformer reported that ICE disputes the accuracy of the Deportation Data Project figures, which come from ICE’s own records, but has not offered alternative numbers. In an Aug. 18, 2026 letter to members of Congress, ICE put the total at 4,674 arrests, 1,864 of them people with criminal histories.

Sources: MPR News / APM Reports (March 31, 2026) · The Intercept (March 30, 2026) · Minnesota Reformer (June 16, 2026) · Fox 9 (Jan. 14, 2026) · ICE letter to Reps. Craig and Omar, signed by acting head David Venturella (Aug. 18, 2026)

Trump called Somalis “garbage” as the operation began; nearly all Minnesota Somalis are U.S. citizens

106 Somali nationals among 3,789 arrests (ICE data, MPR News)

On December 2, 2025, as a federal official told CNN a new ICE operation in the Twin Cities would target Somali immigrants, Trump said at a Cabinet meeting, “I don’t want them in our country” and “Their country stinks,” and called Somalis and Rep. Ilhan Omar “garbage”. Census Bureau data cited by the AP put about 84,000 people of Somali descent in the Twin Cities area: almost 58% of Minnesota’s Somalis were born in the U.S. and 87% of the foreign-born are naturalized citizens, which leaves roughly one in twenty as noncitizens, a group that includes legal residents. ICE data later showed 106 Somali nationals among about 3,800 arrests, and two people deported to Somalia.

Their response: White House article, January 2, 2026: the administration is “spearheading a no-holds-barred effort to hunt down and prosecute the criminals who have exploited Democrats’ non-existent oversight to bilk hardworking taxpayers out of billions of dollars,” citing “Somali-dominated scams”.

Sources: AP via PBS News (Dec. 2, 2025) · CNN (Dec. 2, 2025) · AP via PBS News (Dec. 3, 2025) · MPR News / APM Reports (March 31, 2026) · White House (Jan. 2, 2026)

The stated reason was fraud, but most Somali American defendants were citizens, and the fraud prosecutors quit

82 of 92 fraud defendants Somali American (U.S. Attorney’s Office)

The White House tied the surge to Minnesota’s public-program fraud cases, which are real: federal prosecutors said in December 2025 that half or more of roughly $18 billion in 14 programs may have been stolen, and dozens of people have been convicted in the Feeding Our Future case alone. But the AP reported that the alleged ringleader of that scheme was white and that most of the Somali American defendants were U.S. citizens, who cannot be deported, and Minnesota’s suit argues that stopping people on the street does nothing to combat fraud and that a state agency first flagged the scheme in 2020. On January 13, 2026, Joe Thompson, the prosecutor who built the fraud cases, resigned with four colleagues over the Justice Department’s handling of the Renee Good shooting, and at least eight more followed, CNN reported; Gov. Tim Walz had ended his re-election bid on January 5, citing the fraud scandals.

Their response: White House, January 2, 2026: DHS is “conducting door-to-door investigations of suspected fraud sites in Minnesota, with hundreds of Homeland Security Investigations officers in the state and more on the way.” Walz, ending his campaign: “the political gamesmanship we’re seeing from Republicans is only making that fight harder to win.”

Sources: AP (Dec. 19, 2025) · AP via PBS News (Dec. 3, 2025) · CNN (July 22, 2026) · NBC News (Jan. 5, 2026) · White House (Jan. 2, 2026)

Trump on Minnesota: “the day of reckoning & retribution is coming”; “I won Minnesota three times”

On January 9, 2026, two days after an ICE officer killed Renee Good, Trump called Minnesota “a crooked state” and said, “I won Minnesota three times and I didn’t get credit for it,” according to the state’s court complaint; he lost the state in 2016, 2020 and 2024, the last time to a ticket that included Gov. Tim Walz. On January 13 he posted, “FEAR NOT, GREAT PEOPLE OF MINNESOTA, THE DAY OF RECKONING & RETRIBUTION IS COMING!” Minnesota and the Twin Cities argue in court that the surge was retaliation against political opponents. The statements are documented; the motive is alleged, and the judge hearing the case found “evidence supporting both sides’ arguments as to motivation” and declined to rule on it.

Their response: The government told the court the operation was “the enforcement of federal law” in line with Trump’s campaign promises. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said the killing of Alex Pretti “occurred as a result of a deliberate and hostile resistance by Democrat leaders.”

Sources: CNN (Jan. 14, 2026) · Minnesota Attorney General, press release (Jan. 12, 2026) · CBS News (Jan. 23, 2026) · U.S. District Court, D. Minn., order (Jan. 31, 2026) · AP (Jan. 26, 2026)

On the day of the second killing, Bondi asked Minnesota for its voter rolls and welfare records

In a three-page letter to Gov. Walz dated January 24, 2026, the day a Border Patrol agent and a Customs and Border Protection officer shot and killed Alex Pretti, Attorney General Pam Bondi set out three steps to “bring an end to the chaos in Minnesota”: hand over Medicaid and food-aid records, repeal “sanctuary policies” and honor ICE detainers, and give the Justice Department’s Civil Rights Division access to the state’s voter rolls. The letter does not say agents would leave if the state complied, but five days later border czar Tom Homan said the “withdrawal of law enforcement resources here is dependent on cooperation,” and a federal judge wrote that the letter supported Minnesota’s theory that the surge was meant to coerce the state. Minnesota refused the voter-roll demand, which the department was already pursuing in a 2025 lawsuit; that the surge was leverage for the voter data is alleged, not established.

Their response: Bondi, in the letter: “I am confident that these simple steps will help bring back law and order to Minnesota and improve the lives of Americans.” Minnesota Secretary of State Steve Simon called it “an apparent ransom to pay for our state’s peace and security.”

Sources: CBS News (Jan. 25, 2026) · KSTP (Jan. 25, 2026) · U.S. District Court, D. Minn., order (Jan. 31, 2026) · Minnesota Attorney General, litigation tracker

Alongside the surge, agencies froze or threatened Minnesota’s federal funds; courts blocked most of it

$243M in Medicaid payments deferred (per Minnesota’s attorney general)

A White House article of January 2, 2026, listed a multi-agency campaign against Minnesota: Homeland Security door-knocking, a freeze on child care payments, a demand to recertify food-aid recipients and more. According to the Minnesota attorney general’s litigation tracker, courts then granted a restraining order and preliminary injunction against a child care and family funding freeze aimed at five Democratic-led states (California, Colorado, Illinois, Minnesota and New York), a preliminary injunction against a budget office directive cutting public health grants to four of them, and a preliminary injunction against a threat to end all food-stamp benefits in Minnesota unless four counties were recertified. The state lost one: a judge declined to block a $243 million deferral of Medicaid payments, and that case is stayed.

Their response: White House, January 2, 2026, on the food-aid recertification demand: “a commonsense move inexplicably challenged in court by state officials.”

Sources: White House (Jan. 2, 2026) · Minnesota Attorney General, litigation tracker (read Oct. 6, 2026) · CourtListener docket, New York v. Administration for Children and Families (S.D.N.Y.) · State of Minnesota v. Noem, complaint (Jan. 12, 2026)

Trump threatened the Insurrection Act; the Army readied 1,500 soldiers and Walz and Frey were subpoenaed

On January 15, 2026, Trump posted that if “the corrupt politicians of Minnesota don’t obey the law” he would “institute the INSURRECTION ACT”; he later walked the threat back, but up to 1,500 active-duty soldiers of the 11th Airborne Division in Alaska were put on standby before being stood down around February 1. On January 20 federal prosecutors served grand jury subpoenas on the offices of Gov. Walz, Attorney General Keith Ellison, Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey, St. Paul Mayor Kaohly Her and two counties, in an inquiry into whether officials obstructed immigration enforcement through their public statements, the AP reported. No charges against any of those officials have been reported.

Their response: Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell: the “Department of War is always prepared to execute the orders of the Commander-in-Chief if called upon.” Walz said the administration was not seeking justice, only creating distractions; Her said she was “unfazed by these tactics.”

Sources: AP (Jan. 15, 2026) · NPR (Jan. 18, 2026) · ABC News (Feb. 3, 2026) · AP (Jan. 20, 2026)

Renee Good: officials said she “ran over” an officer; Justice refused a civil-rights inquiry

Within hours of an ICE officer shooting Renee Good, a 37-year-old U.S. citizen, in her car in Minneapolis on January 7, 2026, Trump posted that she “violently, willfully, and viciously ran over the ICE Officer” and Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem called it “an act of domestic terrorism”; a CNN investigation called Trump’s claims “demonstrably false”. Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche said on January 18, “we are not investigating”; CNN reported that Minneapolis prosecutors who opened a standard civil-rights inquiry were told to swap their warrant for one treating Good as a domestic terrorist, and five resigned on January 13 (other outlets counted six), followed by at least eight more and five senior civil-rights prosecutors in Washington. State investigators were denied the evidence until July 13, 2026. No one has been charged; her family filed two federal lawsuits on October 1, 2026.

Their response: Blanche, January 18, 2026: “We don’t just go out and investigate every time an officer is forced to defend himself against somebody putting his life in danger. We never do.” White House spokeswoman Lauren Bis on the family’s suits: “We intend to vigorously defend these baseless civil lawsuits.”

Sources: CNN (July 22, 2026) · The Guardian (Jan. 18, 2026) · AP (July 13, 2026) · ABC News (Oct. 2, 2026)

Alex Pretti was called a “domestic terrorist” and “would-be assassin”; videos show a phone in his hand

After a Border Patrol agent and a Customs and Border Protection officer shot Alex Pretti, a 37-year-old U.S. citizen and intensive-care nurse at the Minneapolis veterans hospital, on January 24, 2026, Noem said he had “committed an act of domestic terrorism”, commander Gregory Bovino said he meant to “massacre law enforcement” and White House deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller called him “a would-be assassin”. The AP found that none of the half-dozen bystander videos shows Pretti, who had a carry permit, brandishing his gun: he held a phone, an officer appears to take a handgun from his waist, and another officer then fires into his back. The Justice Department opened a civil-rights investigation on January 30, but the FBI refused to share evidence with Minnesota investigators until July 13, 2026. No charges have been reported.

Their response: Bovino, the day after: “That, folks, is why we have something called an investigation. I wasn’t there wrestling him myself. So I’m not going to speculate.” Blanche, January 30: “We’re looking at everything that would shed light on what happened that day.”

Sources: AP (Jan. 25, 2026) · BBC News (Jan. 24, 2026) · AP (Jan. 30, 2026) · BBC News (March 3, 2026) · AP (July 13, 2026)

Justice leaders blocked civil-rights charges against an ICE agent; the prosecutor who objected was fired

On January 14, 2026, ICE officer Christian Castro shot Julio Cesar Sosa-Celis in the leg through the front door of a Minneapolis home; DHS said the officer had been “ambushed by three individuals”, but the Justice Department later dropped charges against two men, saying new evidence was “materially inconsistent” with the allegations. Hennepin County charged Castro in May 2026 with four counts of second-degree assault and falsely reporting a crime. ProPublica reported on September 3, 2026 that department leaders in Washington overrode the case prosecutor’s “strongest possible” objections and limited the federal case to false statements; that prosecutor, Matthew Evans, was then fired, CBS News reported, citing four sources. Castro was booked into the Hennepin County jail on September 16.

Their response: A Justice Department official told ProPublica that charging decisions in such cases “are collaborative and deliberative and adhere to the facts and law of that specific case and controversy.” ICE called the county’s charges “unlawful and nothing more than a political stunt.”

Sources: ProPublica (Sept. 3, 2026) · CBS News (Sept. 3, 2026) · AP (May 18, 2026) · NBC News / Reuters (Sept. 17, 2026) · AP (Jan. 15, 2026)

Minnesota’s chief federal judge: ICE violated at least 96 court orders in one month

During the immigration crackdown in Minneapolis, Chief U.S. District Judge Patrick Schiltz wrote on Jan. 28, 2026 that ICE had violated at least 96 court orders in 74 cases since Jan. 1, a tally he called likely an undercount, and that the agency had disobeyed more orders that month “than other agencies have violated in their entire existence.” A day earlier he had ordered ICE’s acting director to appear and explain, calling that “an extraordinary step” justified because “the extent of ICE’s violation of court orders is likewise extraordinary, and lesser measures have been tried and failed.” He withdrew the summons after the detainee at issue was released.

Their response: Homeland Security assistant secretary Tricia McLaughlin: “If DHS’s behavior was so vile, why dismiss the order to appear? ... We will not be deterred by activists either in the streets or on the bench.”

Sources: FOX 9 Minneapolis (Jan. 28, 2026) · CNBC (Jan. 27, 2026)

The counter-case: a judge refused to halt the surge and found evidence on both sides about its motive

On January 31, 2026, U.S. District Judge Katherine Menendez denied Minnesota, Minneapolis and St. Paul an order halting Operation Metro Surge. She wrote that the state had shown “profound and even heartbreaking” consequences and that there was evidence agents “engaged in racial profiling, excessive use of force, and other harmful actions”, but that “a factfinder could reasonably credit” the government’s claim that sanctuary policies require more federal agents, and that an appeals court had just stayed her narrower order protecting protesters. The Tenth Amendment and retaliation claims remain undecided: the state amended its complaint, and the government’s motion to dismiss was argued on September 9, 2026.

Their response: Attorney General Bondi called the ruling “another HUGE” legal win. Noem said her agency is “grateful when a court sees that the right thing has been done.” Ellison: “We know that these 3,000 immigration agents are here to intimidate Minnesota and bend the state to the federal government’s will.”

Sources: U.S. District Court, D. Minn., order denying injunction (Jan. 31, 2026) · AP (Jan. 31, 2026) · CourtListener docket, State of Minnesota v. Noem · MinnPost (Jan. 28, 2026)

Other Minnesota rulings: protest protections (later stayed) and a bar on arresting lawful refugees

On January 16, 2026, Judge Menendez barred federal agents from retaliating against, detaining or pepper-spraying people peacefully observing the operation, and from stopping drivers merely for following agents; the Eighth Circuit stayed that order on appeal within days. On February 27 a federal judge blocked a new policy of arresting refugees in Minnesota who had not yet obtained green cards, writing that it turned “the refugees’ American Dream into a dystopian nightmare” and rested on a wrong reading of the law. A judge also ordered better access to lawyers for detainees at the Whipple federal building, and an ACLU class action alleging stops and arrests based on Somali or Latino appearance was still pending at last report.

Their response: DHS Assistant Secretary Tricia McLaughlin, after the January 16 ruling: the agency was taking “appropriate and constitutional measures to uphold the rule of law and protect our officers and the public from dangerous rioters.”

Sources: AP (Jan. 16, 2026) · The Guardian (Feb. 27, 2026) · Civil Rights Litigation Clearinghouse, Tincher v. Noem · Civil Rights Litigation Clearinghouse, Hussen v. Noem · CBS Minnesota (Feb. 20, 2026)

Street surges went to Democratic-led cities, while the most ICE arrests came in Texas and Florida

24% of ICE arrests were in Texas, Jan.-July 2025 (Texas Tribune)

Minnesota says the surge fits a “pattern of targeting Democratic municipalities” such as Los Angeles, Portland, Chicago and Washington, and notes that Utah, Texas and Florida, with higher noncitizen shares, saw no such deployment. The arrest data cut both ways: Texas alone accounted for 24% of the 138,068 ICE arrests made from the inauguration to July 29, 2025, the Texas Tribune found, mostly through local jails that cooperate with ICE; in July 2026 over half of a record of nearly 50,000 monthly arrests came from Texas, Florida, California and Georgia. What set Minnesota apart was method: 97% of its surge arrests were made on the street, against 52% elsewhere, and its two largest counties honored under 10% of ICE jail requests. So Republican-led states saw more arrests and Democratic-led cities saw the agents in the streets; whether that reflects politics or jail access is disputed.

Their response: The government’s position, as summarized by the court: Minnesota’s “sanctuary laws and policies that limit the cooperation of some state and local officials with federal immigration officials” have “hindered the federal government’s ability to enforce immigration laws in Minnesota.”

Sources: Texas Tribune (Nov. 3, 2025) · Deportation Data Project, Immigration arrests in 2026 (Sept. 8, 2026) · The Intercept (March 30, 2026) · MinnPost (Jan. 28, 2026) · Minnesota Attorney General, press release (Jan. 12, 2026)

Court filings: agents ran an undercover surveillance program on unions and groups protesting the surge

Court documents filed in August 2026 show federal agents ran an undercover operation called “Operation Puppet Master” against progressive organizations, labor unions and other groups protesting the Minnesota crackdown, the AP reported. The government obtained years of financial records for groups including the Sunrise Movement, the Service Employees International Union and the Communications Workers of America, with requests telling recipients not to disclose them. The filings came in the case of 15 people charged in June 2026 with conspiring to impede federal agents; the U.S. attorney for Minnesota called their groups “antifa”. None of the 15 has been reported tried.

Their response: DHS said Homeland Security Investigations does not comment on “the existence or status of on-going investigations or investigative methods.” U.S. Attorney Daniel Rosen said the groups had “violently opposed the enforcement of federal law.”

Sources: AP (Aug. 14, 2026) · AP via PBS News (June 16, 2026)

How it ended: Bovino pulled out after the second killing, Homan declared success, Noem was replaced

Two days after Alex Pretti was killed, Trump put border czar Tom Homan in charge in Minnesota and commander Gregory Bovino left; Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey said Trump agreed in a phone call that the situation could not continue. Homan withdrew 700 officers in early February and announced the end of the operation on February 12, crediting “unprecedented levels of coordination” from state and local officials, with a “small” security force and fraud investigators staying on. On March 5 Trump replaced Kristi Noem as Homeland Security secretary with Sen. Markwayne Mullin. ICE arrests in Minnesota fell below 250 a month from March to July, and the state dropped from fourth to 32nd in arrests, while national arrests hit a record of nearly 50,000 in July.

Their response: Trump, announcing the change, said Noem “has served us well, and has had numerous and spectacular results (especially on the Border!)” and named her a special envoy. Homan: “We’ll get back to the original footprint.”

Sources: AP (Jan. 26, 2026) · Fox News (Feb. 12, 2026) · AP (Feb. 15, 2026) · The Guardian (March 5, 2026) · Minnesota Reformer (Aug. 25, 2026)

Minneapolis put the local cost near $700 million; no federal cost figure has been published

$700M in local costs through April 2026 (city estimate)

The City of Minneapolis first estimated $203.1 million “in impact” for January 2026 alone, including $81 million in lost business revenue and $47 million in lost wages, and in a June 10, 2026 report raised the total to “nearly $700 million in costs and increased basic needs” by April. These are the city’s own estimates and rest partly on modeled assumptions, such as which foreign-born households lost work. The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book for the Minneapolis district, issued March 4, said consumer spending fell and reported: “A great number of immigrant workers in Minnesota were unable to work due to increased immigration enforcement activity.” No official figure for what the operation cost the federal government has been published.

Sources: City of Minneapolis, Updated Impact Assessment and Recovery Needs Overview (June 10, 2026) · CBS Minnesota (Feb. 13, 2026) · Federal Reserve, Beige Book, Minneapolis district (March 4, 2026) · Federal Reserve, Beige Book, Minneapolis district (April 2026)