Economic outcomes

Federal deficit as a share of GDP, by president

The average annual federal budget deficit, as a percent of GDP, over the fiscal years of each term, from Congressional Budget Office and Treasury data. This is the yearly flow of borrowing, and it complements the debt-stock chart. Higher means larger deficits. Congress, not the president, writes the budget; two of the figures are dominated by emergency crisis spending.

Clinton

~0.1%

Essentially balanced; ran outright budget surpluses in fiscal 1998 through 2001

Bush

3.3%

Tax cuts and wars, then the 2008 crisis at the end

Obama

4.9%

The financial-crisis response, narrowing across the recovery

Trump I

8.6%

Highest in the window, driven by the 2020–21 COVID emergency spending; the average includes fiscal 2021 (11.7%), which began under Trump and ran mostly under Biden

Biden

5.8%

Elevated post-pandemic deficits; FY2025 came in near 5.8%

Trump II

6.2%*

Fiscal 2026 only, the first year begun and closed in this term: about $2.0 trillion, per the Congressional Budget Office's estimate; final Treasury figures are not yet out

Congress controls the budget, and two figures are crisis-driven. Spending and taxes are set by Congress, not the president alone. Trump I's 8.6% and part of Obama's 4.9% reflect the once-in-a-generation emergencies (COVID, the 2008 financial crisis) that landed in those terms; stripping the emergency years would compress the gaps sharply. Clinton's near-balance coincided with the late-1990s boom and a Republican Congress. Trump II's bar is a single fiscal year (2026) and a Congressional Budget Office estimate, not an average over a term.