Economic outcomes

Average annual real GDP growth, by president

The compound annual growth rate of real (inflation-adjusted) GDP over each presidential term, measured inauguration quarter to inauguration quarter, from Bureau of Economic Analysis data. This is an outcome, not a policy: presidents share credit and blame for the economy with the business cycle, the Federal Reserve, Congress, and the rest of the world. Read it as what happened on each watch, not what each president did.

Clinton

3.7%

Late-1990s expansion and the dot-com boom

Bush

1.8%

Began at a peak, ended in the depths of the 2008–09 recession

Obama

2.2%

Slow recovery from the financial crisis

Trump I

2.1%

Steady growth, then the 2020 pandemic contraction

Biden

2.9%

Post-pandemic rebound

Trump II

2.6%*

Partial term, ~5 quarters; an early figure that will move with revisions

Presidents do not control the business cycle. Growth is driven heavily by where in the cycle a term begins and ends, by Federal Reserve policy (which is independent), by Congress, and by global shocks. Bush's low figure reflects starting at a peak and ending in the 2008–09 crash; the pandemic contraction sits inside Trump I's term and the rebound inside Biden's. Attributing these swings to a president alone is exactly the mistake this chart's caption exists to prevent.