Economic outcomes

Average annual inflation, by president

The compound annual rate of consumer-price inflation over each presidential term, from Bureau of Labor Statistics data. Inflation is the outcome a president controls least directly: it is set by the independent Federal Reserve and moved by global supply shocks. One term stands well apart.

Clinton

2.6%

Bush

2.4%

Obama

1.8%

Lowest in the window; slack from the slow recovery

Trump I

1.9%

Biden

5.0%

The post-pandemic supply shock and energy-price surge; the clear outlier

Trump II

3.0%*

Partial term; the 12-month rate fell to 2.3% in April 2025, climbed to 4.2% in May 2026, and was 3.4% in August 2026

The Federal Reserve, not the president, sets monetary policy. Biden's figure reflects the global 2021–22 post-pandemic supply shock and the energy-price spike after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, forces no fiscal policy fully controls, though the scale of pandemic stimulus is part of the debate. Inflation is a lagging, worldwide phenomenon; every advanced economy saw a similar surge in the same window. Trump II is a partial term, and the October 2025 CPI was never published (the 2025 government shutdown).