Economic outcomes
Change in unemployment over the term, by president
The percentage-point change in the unemployment rate from the month a president took office to the month he left, from Bureau of Labor Statistics data. Below zero means unemployment was lower when he left than when he arrived. This is a direction, not a level: where in the business cycle a term begins matters as much as anything the president does.
Start, end, and average
| President | Start | End | Change | Term average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton | 7.3% | 4.2% | −3.1 pp | 5.2% |
| Bush | 4.2% | 7.8% | +3.6 pp | 5.3% |
| Obama | 7.8% | 4.7% | −3.1 pp | 7.5% |
| Trump I | 4.7% | 6.4% | +1.7 pp | 5.0% |
| Biden | 6.4% | 4.0% | −2.4 pp | 4.2% |
| Trump II* | 4.0% | 4.2% | +0.2 pp | 4.3% |
The change and the average tell different stories, and both can mislead. Obama's 7.5% term average looks poor, yet he cut unemployment by 3.1 points, because he inherited it near a crisis peak. That is why the chart shows the change (the direction) rather than the level.
The starting point is inherited, not chosen. Obama (7.8%) and Biden (6.4%) took office with unemployment near a crisis high, so a large fall partly reflects a cycle turning, not policy; Bush's rise ends in the 2008 crash. The Federal Reserve, not the president, sets the monetary policy that most moves the labor market. Trump II is a partial term, and the October 2025 rate does not exist: the record 43-day government shutdown suspended the survey, so that month is permanently missing.