Elections · analysis
Election fraud, counted: real, rare, and already prosecuted
Every proven case in the largest public database, kept by the conservative Heritage Foundation: 1,619 since 1982, 1,480 since 2000: 1 in 157k registered voters. Look at what they are and the case for new voting rules gets weaker still. The biggest categories are absentee-ballot schemes, false registrations, and ineligible felons: prosecuted under existing law (1,381 criminal convictions). In-person impersonation, the only fraud a photo-ID requirement stops, is 34 cases in 43 years. The handful of elections actually overturned were local races stolen through mail-ballot schemes run by insiders and operatives, not by voters without the right papers.
This section makes an argument, unlike the rest of this site: that proven voter fraud is far too rare to justify new barriers to voting. Every number is sourced, and the strongest evidence on the other side is shown, not hidden. The other side →
Proven cases in the Heritage Election Fraud Database by type of fraud, 1982–2025. A case can involve more than one type, so the bars add to more than 1,619. One “case” can be a single voter or an entire scheme.
Proven cases by year the case concluded, 2000–2025 (1,480 total). Reflects when prosecutions resolved and when Heritage logged them, not when fraud happened, and not how much went undetected.
The 2011 peak (160) is about half Minnesota (81 cases, 71 of them felon voting): prosecutions that followed scrutiny of the 2008 Senate recount. 2025 (grey) is incomplete: cases are added as they close.
The ten states with the most proven cases, 1982–2025, with each state's most common type and its since-2000 cases as a share of registered voters. Rankings track how aggressively states investigate, prosecute, and report. All 51, with rates →
Noncitizen voting
The Heritage database has 100 proven noncitizen cases, most in North Carolina (38), Florida (15), and Illinois (10). State citizenship audits since 2024 have reported noncitizens on the rolls at rates from about 0.0002% (Georgia) to 0.013% (Louisiana) of registered voters, and fewer still who voted. The full audit breakdown, state by state →
The elections fraud actually changed
Proven fraud has overturned real elections, nearly always local races, and nearly always through absentee or mail ballots handled by operatives, not impersonation at the polls. The most consequential recent case benefited a Republican; most of the others were Democratic primaries or nonpartisan city races.
| Race | Scheme | Outcome |
|---|---|---|
| NC 9th Congressional District, 2018 | Operative McCrae Dowless's crew collected, forged, and filled in absentee ballots for Republican Mark Harris | State board unanimously voided the result; new election held 2019. Dowless indicted (died before trial); four others pleaded guilty |
| Bridgeport, CT mayoral primary, 2023 | Absentee ballots stuffed into drop boxes, caught on video; 251-vote margin | Judge ordered a new primary; five people, including three council members, charged in 2025 |
| Compton, CA city council, 2021 | Nonresidents registered at a candidate's address; won by one vote, 855–854 | Judge tossed four illegal votes and seated the runner-up; six charged |
| Paterson, NJ city council, 2020 | Mail-ballot fraud in an all-mail election; ~19% of ballots disqualified | Judge ordered a new election; winner and a sitting councilman among four charged |
| East Chicago, IN mayoral primary, 2003 | Cash for absentee votes, voters registered at vacant lots | Indiana Supreme Court ordered a new election; the challenger won it |
| Miami mayoral election, 1997 | Nearly 400 fraudulent absentee ballots, some in the names of the dead | Result thrown out; the court installed the runner-up |
The 2020 claims, and what the reviews found
After 2020, claims that fraud decided the presidency were tested in courts, recounts, and audits: several run by Republicans. Each confirmed the certified result. Documented 2020 fraud did occur, on both sides (including four residents of The Villages, Florida, who admitted voting twice, two of them for Trump both times) but at a scale far below the margins.
| Review | Finding |
|---|---|
| Lawsuits by the Trump campaign and allies | 62 filed, 61 lost or dismissed; the one win (a Pennsylvania deadline question) affected no outcome |
| AP survey of 300+ local offices in six swing states (2021) | Fewer than 475 potential fraud cases, versus Biden's combined margin of 311,257 |
| Georgia statewide hand count (2020) | Confirmed the winner; ~0.1% variance from the machine count |
| Arizona “Cyber Ninjas” review, commissioned by the GOP state Senate (2021) | Hand recount of 2.1M Maricopa ballots found Biden's margin 360 votes larger than certified |
| Michigan GOP-led Senate Oversight Committee (2021) | “No evidence of widespread or systematic fraud” |
| Wisconsin Legislative Audit Bureau (2021) | Totals accurate; 4 possible double votes, 11 dead voters, 8 possible felon voters out of 3M+ ballots |
| Federal election-security officials (CISA, Nov 2020) | “No evidence that any voting system deleted or lost votes, changed votes, or was in any way compromised” |
Share of each candidate's voters who said the election was run well nationally (Pew Research, after each election). Confidence tracks who won.
Trump voters' confidence rose from 21% to 93% between the two elections; the machinery was largely the same. Gallup's pre-election 2024 poll found the widest partisan gap on record: 84% of Democrats vs 28% of Republicans confident votes would be counted accurately.